No, the housing market isn't in a bubble. But there still are many things to worry about in 2022

House prices were rising strongly before the pandemic, but since the pandemic hit they've been on a tear. The median existing house price - half of homes sold for more and half for less - has surged to more than $350,000, about double what it was a decade ago.

Just in the past year, the price for a typical home is up almost 20%. And in about one-fourth of the nation's 400-plus metropolitan areas, prices have rocketed by more. Even in the mid-2000s just before that housing bubble burst, fewer than one-fifth of metropolitan areas had seen annual prices increase as much.

No. Not yet. But I say this with less confidence than I did a year ago, and if current trends continue for another year, I won't be saying it at all.

There are good reasons house prices are up a lot. First, a shout-out to the federal government's yeoman efforts to shore up the housing market during the pandemic. This includes a foreclosure moratorium and forbearance on payments on government-backed mortgages, which have forestalled distressed home sales, typically at big discounts that weigh on house prices. There have been amazingly few foreclosures during the pandemic.

House prices have also been supercharged as mortgage rates declined to record lows. In no small part due to the Federal Reserve's efforts, the rate on a typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan fell below 3% at the start of the pandemic and has been hovering near there ever since.

For most of the economic expansion before the pandemic, rates were closer to 4%. And in the housing bubble they were about 6%. Since most home buyers purchase as much home as their mortgage payment and income will allow, lower mortgage rates quickly juice demand and house prices, particularly when there is a shortage of homes, as there is now.

This housing shortage had its beginnings in the bursting housing bubble and collapse in new home building. Builders have slowly ramped up construction since then, but even now the number of new homes is not sufficient to meet demand. The vacancy rate for homes for sale has never been lower and continues to decline. The housing shortfall is especially acute for lower-priced homes. More restrictive zoning since the financial crisis and much higher labor, lumber and other material costs have vexed the economics of building homes at lower price points. The chaos in global supply chains complicates home building even more.

Work-from-anywhere, set off by the pandemic, has further powered housing demand. Many apartment dwellers in the nation's largest urban centers that were slammed hardest by the pandemic fled for the safety and bigger spaces of the suburbs, exurbs and smaller cities. Many bought homes and have been willing to pay much higher prices that look like bargains compared with house prices in the city.